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By CIMB Research Thursday, 29 July 2010 10:26

Property Property plays benefiting from tourism boom • Positive on hospitality and retail. The Singapore Tourism Board (STB) released yet another good set of tourism numbers for June yesterday, indicating we are on the brink of touching the last tourism peak in 2006. We believe 3Q performances will top 2Q performances with mega-events lined up in Singapore. Top property beneficiaries of the tourism boom will be hospitality stocks with maximum re-pricing ability; followed by retail-related stocks which are able to capture sales upside in gross turnover rent. Hotels and retail malls in prime locations or near tourist hotspots such as the Marina Bay area, Sentosa and Orchard Road should do markedly better than other locations, in our view. Our top pick for Singapore tourism exposure will be CDLHT, the closest proxy for Singapore hotels. We also like Suntec REIT, OUE and Ascott REIT. • Singapore on track to breaking tourism record this year. Our estimate is 11.3m-11.5m tourists (9.7m in 2009, 10.1m in 2008). But this headline number understates the number of tourists to Singapore because land arrivals are not included in the numbers. • Occupancy and REVPAR just shy of last peak. Islandwide average occupancy rate rose 12.3% pts over Jun 09 to reach 88% in Jun 10, just 4% pts shy of Singapore’s absolute peak occupancy in Nov 06. We believe with hotel occupancy technically considered full, room rates will be priced more steeply soon. • Top pick is CDLHT. CDLHT is the largest hotel owner in Singapore by number of rooms, and the purest Singapore hotelier. About 55% of its gross revenue is contributed by its Singapore hotels’ variable rent component (pegged to hotel revenue), making it the most direct beneficiary as REVPAR ramps up. In addition to REVPAR growth, we anticipate other near-term catalysts from a possible early refinancing of debt on improved credit terms, as well as acquisitions. CDLHT’s compressed dividend yields (5.6%) and low asset leverage after its recent private placement (22.6%) point to potential accretive acquisitions in the horizon. • In the non-REIT space, we like OUE for its exposure to good-quality hotel assets in prime locations. Hotels form 30% of OUE’s GAV. The stock trades at a 25% discount to its RNAV, backed by a low net gearing of 20%. June shone, with tourism stats Growth in visitor arrivals far exceeded last peak in 2006. Although growth in visitor arrivals slowed from +30.3% yoy in May to +26.7% in June, the 950k arrivals were the highest ever for June and the seventh consecutive month of record arrivals. The rate of growth had also far exceeded the last growth peak in 2006, second only to the bounce from a depressed base after SARS in 2004. China, Malaysia and Hong Kong were the top markets. Growth came from 14 of the 15 top markets in June. China (+65.8% yoy), Malaysia (+51.3%), and Hong Kong (+48.2%) were up the most. Indonesians accounted for 22% of total arrivals while Malaysians accounted for 10%. Visitor arrivals under-estimated. Headline numbers understate the number of tourists to Singapore because land arrivals (mainly Malaysians entering Singapore via the Causeway and the Second Link) are not included in the numbers. We believe Malaysian tourists entering Singapore have exploded, if the number of Malaysian-registered cars and buses at Resorts Word Sentosa are anything to go by. Assuming there are as many Malaysian tourists as Indonesians, we are looking at about 2.3m Malaysian tourists in Singapore this year, 50% more than the official figures. Occupancy and REVPAR just shy of last peak. Islandwide average occupancy rate was up 12.3% pts over Jun 09 to reach 88% in Jun 10, just 4% pts shy of Singapore’s absolute peak occupancy in Nov 06. We believe with occupancy technically considered full, room rates will be priced more steeply soon. Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) leapt 42.6% yoy to reach S$192 in Jun 10, 16% shy of the S$223 peak in Sep 08. 2Q was great, 3Q to be better? 2Q was great, 3Q should be better. We expect visitor arrivals to surge further in 2H10, with mega-events lined up in Singapore, including the first-ever Youth Olympic Games (14-26 Aug), Formula 1 Singapore Grand Prix (24-26 Sep), and the Singapore International Jewellery Show (29 Jul-1 Aug). 3Q10, being summer time in Europe, is also the traditional travelling season for these visitors. Room rates set to rise with occupancy technically full. With the exception of the luxury segment, occupancy in the other hotel segments is roughly stable at above 85% (which is technically considered full) despite the addition of more than 4,000 hotel rooms in 2010. With island average occupancy at 88% in June, we believe room rates will move further north in 2H10. Valuation and recommendation Hospitality and retail sectors to prosper. We believe the top beneficiaries of the tourism boom will be the hospitality and retail sectors. In particular, hotels and retail malls in prime locations or near tourist hotspots such as Marina Bay area, Sentosa and Orchard Road will benefit. Our top pick for tourism exposure will be CDLHT, the closest proxy for Singapore hotels. We also like Suntec REIT, OUE and Ascott REIT. Top pick CDLHT. CDLHT is the largest hotel owner in Singapore by number of rooms. In our last update dated 9 Sep 10, its portfolio pricing appeared attractive, particularly compared with hotels in Marina Bay. In addition, we understand that CDLHT’s hotels have tie-up arrangements with Resorts World Sentosa, and are pursuing similar arrangements with Marina Bay Sands. About 55% of CDLHT’s gross revenue comes from its Singapore hotels’ variable rent component (which are pegged to hotel revenue), making it the most direct beneficiary as REVPAR ramps up. We anticipate other near-term catalysts from a possible early refinancing of debt on improved credit terms, as well as acquisitions. With its dividend yields compressed to below 5.6%, accretive acquisitions even in Singapore look possible. After its recent private placement, asset leverage is down to 22.6%, giving it sizeable debt headroom of S$650m for acquisitions. Maintain Outperform and DDM-based target price of S$2.04. OUE. In the non-REIT space, we like OUE for its exposure to good-quality hotels located in prime locations. Hotels form 30% of OUE’s GAV, with over 95% of this coming from Mandarin Orchard (100% stake) and Marina Mandarin (25%). RevPARs for both had risen by 30-45% yoy in 2Q10. It is also worth noting that 20% of its GAV comes from retail assets (Mandarin Gallery, ORP retail, Change Alley Aerial Plaza and Marina Square). The stock trades at a 25% discount to its RNAV, backed by a low net gearing of 20%. Suntec REIT. Key beneficiary would be its retail assets in Suntec City Shopping Mall and the Suntec Exhibition and Convention Centre (20% stake). Turnover rent should have some upside as footfall increases with: 1) the mall being the official venue for the YOG Culture and Education Programme; and 2) Suntec Convention Centre being the official Convention Centre Partner for YOG. Retail revenue, primarily from Suntec City Shopping Mall, contributes 53% to Suntec’s revenue. Ascott REIT. ART’s exposure to Singapore serviced residences is limited to 20% of its total gross profit. Due to a 7-day minimum-stay policy, serviced residences are not able to re-price their rooms as quickly as hotels. Nonetheless, we believe REVPAU will surge for ART’s Singapore assets, particularly when refurbishment is completed this month.