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By Bank of America Merill Lynch Wednesday, 01 September 2010 14:19

New property cooling measures introduced The government has introduced a new round of both private and HDB property cooling measures in response to continued strength in residential prices. The measures are more extreme in nature than previous tools used to moderate property price and, in our view, will dampen both market sentiment and private housing demand. The new measures reinforce our call of a 2H10 peak in physical residential prices and our underweight stance on Singapore developers. Concurrent ownership disallowed within 5 year MOP The most significant measure implemented is the disallowance of concurrent ownership of both HDB flats and private residential properties within a minimum occupation period (MOP) of 5 years. Previously there was only restriction on ownership of private residential property for those who purchased HDB under the subsidized scheme. With ~40% of 1H10 private new sale residential transactions driven by buyers with a HDB address this will significantly impact  demand. In addition, the minimum occupation period for non subsidized flats has been extended to 5 years (from 3 years previously) also prolonging the “upgrading” cycle and thus affecting private housing demand. Seller stamp duty extended; restrictions on second houses Seller stamp duty has been extended from one year to three years (graduated scale) while restrictions on second  homes have been tightened. For property buyers who already have one or more outstanding housing loans at the time of new purchase the minimum cash payment has increased from 5% to 10% while the LTV has been decreased from 80% to 70%. In contrast to the HDB measures that have been introduced we see the private measures as relatively mild. Help for first time home time buyers In an effort to help first time home buyers, the government has also tweaked measures relating to HDB policies. These include i) allowing households with income of between $8,000 to $10,000 to buy subsidized HDB flats (previously restricted to Executive Condominiums); ii) increasing supply of new flats from 16,000 new units in 2010 to 22,000 new units in 2011 and iii) shorten the completion time of Build-To-Order flats (reduction from 3 yrs to 2.5 yrs). Re-iterating our negative stance on property developers Singapore developers are trading at 1.4x 2010E P/B and at a 7% discount to our RNAVs which is inline with historical averages. In past cycles, stocks traded below mid cycle valuations when QoQ change in residential pricing slows and residential volumes weaken. Given our expectation that volumes and pricing will peak in 2010 we re-iterate our Underperform calls on City Developments, CapitaLand and Keppel Land. New property cooling measures introduced The government has introduced a new round of both private and HDB property cooling measures in response to continued strength in residential prices. The measures are more extreme in nature than previous tools used to moderate property price and, in our view, will dampen both market sentiment and private housing demand. The new measures reinforce our call of a 2H10 peak in physical residential prices and our underweight stance on Singapore developers. Concurrent ownership disallowed within 5 year MOP The most significant measure implemented is the disallowance of concurrent ownership of both HDB flats and private residential properties within a minimum occupation period (MOP) of 5 years. Previously there was only restriction onownership of private residential property for those who purchased HDB under the subsidized scheme. With ~40% of 1H10 private new sale residential transactions driven by buyers with a HDB address, this will significantly impact demand. In addition the minimum occupation period for non subsidized flats has been extended to 5 years (from 3 years previously) also prolonging the “upgrading” cycle and thus affecting private housing demand. In addition, private property owners who buy a non-subsidised HDB flat today must now dispose of their private residential property within six months from the date of flat purchase. This will help ensure that buyers purchase HDB flats only when they have the intention of staying in it for long term. Sellers stamp duty extended; restrictions on second houses Sellers stamp duty (SSD) has been extended from one year to three years (graduated scale). This will impact only purchases made on or after 30 August 2010. The full SSD rate of 1% for the first S$180,000, 2% for the next S$180,000, and 3% for the balance will be imposed for sales made within first year of purchase while two-thirds and one-third of the full SSD rate will be imposed on sales made within the second and third year respectively. Restrictions on second homes have also been tightened. For property buyers who already have one or more outstanding housing loans at the time of new purchase the minimum cash payment has increased from 5% to 10% while the LTV has been decreased from 80% to 70%. In contrast to the HDB measures that have been introduced, we see the private measures as relatively mild. Help for first time home time buyers In an effort to help first time home buyers, the government has also tweaked measures relating to HDB policies. These include i) allowing households with income of between $8,000 to $10,000 to buy subsidized HDB flats (previously restricted to Executive Condominiums); ii) increasing supply of new flats from 16,000 new units in 2010 to 22,000 new units in 2011 and iii) shorten the completion time of Build-To-Order flats (reduction from 3 yrs to 2.5 yrs). Re-iterating our negative stance on property developers Singapore developers are trading at 1.4x 2010E P/B and at a 7% discount to our RNAVs which is inline with historical averages. In past cycles, stocks traded below mid cycle valuations when QoQ change in residential pricing slows and residential volumes weaken. Given our expectation that volumes and pricing will peak in 2010 we re-iterate our Underperform calls on City Developments, CapitaLand and Keppel Land.