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By Capital Economics Thursday, 25 February 2010 14:48

A round-up of the latest economic and commercial property market data London office rents rise, but all-property average to fall further * The economy remains subdued, with the public finances in a poor state, retail sales declining sharply in January and unemployment rising again. All of this simply reinforces our view that GDP will grow by just 1% this year, with inflation falling from around the middle of 2010 and the recent rises in bond yields also likely to be reversed. * Market intelligence over the past month showed that respondents to the latest REITA survey expect the current downturn in rental values to continue, albeit for a shorter period than in the early 1990s.Continued rises in retail availability support that view. Admittedly, one bright spot is that office takeup, especially in Central London, has begun to improve. * The IPD Monthly Index showed that rental values fell further in January, though the monthly decline (0.2%) was the smallest since September 2008. Indeed, consistent with strong take-up, City and West End office rental values actually increased in January. Central London office rental values are set to rise further, but we still expect the IPD all-property average to fall by about 3% this year. * The investment market upturn continued in January, albeit at a slower pace. IPD initial yields declined by 8bps (from slightly above 7% to slightly below), a smaller fall than the average of 20bps in each of the previous four months. The fading rally in real estate equity prices supports our view that the rebound in IPD capital values will have broadly ground to a halt by the middle of 2010. * Propertydata.com figures showed that investment market activity declined sharply in January, from £4.3 billion (RM22.51 billion) in December to £1.1 billion. However, part of that decline was due simply to normal seasonal influences. Indeed, in our view, transactions activity is more likely to be strong than weak in the coming months, as institutions spend the large capital inflows that they have received from retail investors.