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UK Commercial Property Update: March 9, 2010

By Capital Economics
Wednesday, 10 March 2010 15:30

Will the boom turn to bust... again? The lessons from 1993/94

• The current surge in commercial property capital values broadly mirrors the rebound seen in 1993/94 as the economy emerged from the last recession. That episode, however, gave way to renewed capital value falls as bond yields rose sharply. This time around, by contrast, we see little scope for bond yields to rise materially, so expect the recent property capital gains to be sustained in 2010 and 2011.

• As Chart 1 shows, the speed of the current rebound in IPD all-property capital values is similar to that seen in 1993/94. That episode, however, did not prove sustainable. After rising by 16% between June 1993 and July 1994, capital values then gave back about half of those gains over the subsequent 12 to 18 month period. So why did the 1993/94 upturn end so abruptly and then go into reverse?

• The answer to that question is that bond yields rose sharply. Indeed, as highlighted by the dotted lines on Chart 2, a positive property to bond yield spread of more than 200bps turned negative in the space of just four months in early 1994. Bond yields themselves had risen in anticipation of tighter monetary policy, which started in the US in 1993 and was replicated in the UK in 1994.

• So what are the risks that, as in 1994, UK bond yields increase sharply over the next six to 12 months? Such an outcome is not impossible. After all, financial markets are currently pricing-in higher base rates from around 3Q this year, and growing concerns about the public finances and about inflation pressures could also push up bond yields.

• To our minds, however, it is actually more likely that bond yields fall rather than rise over the remainder of the year as economic growth remains weak, spare capacity remains high and inflation pressures recede. And even if we are wrong about bond yields falling, it would still take an especially sharp rise to turn the property/bond yield spread (currently about 300bps) negative again.

• Accordingly, we do not think that the current capital value gains will be reversed later this year or in 2011. That said, we still continue to expect a plateau for capital values from around the middle of 2010. This is because by that stage it will be becoming clear that UK property no longer offers much value relative to bonds, equities or, indeed, overseas property markets (especially in Europe).

• Of course, these views are not without risks. For a start, fresh exchange rate weakness may sustain overseas buyers’ demand for UK property for much of the year. On the other hand, however, if banks start to take a harder line on non-performing loans, the supply of property available for sale may start to rise, dampening upward price pressures. What’s more, the longer this mini-boom continues without the fundamental support of rental growth, the greater are the chances of a bubble forming.

• Even so, the key lesson from 1993/94 is that renewed, significant falls in commercial property capital values are a limited risk for as long as the property to bond yield spread remains positive. Indeed, in the absence of a double-dip economic recession, our view is that capital values are unlikely to experience renewed falls until monetary policy tightening finally does begin in earnest. The timing of this remains uncertain, but we see little chance of it happening in 2010 or 2011.