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By Credit Suisse Research Monday, 30 August 2010 13:47

Research Weekly Asia Singapore property sector: Home demand supported by strong fundamentals The real estate market in Singapore has recovered strongly after the 2008 financial crisis, as the strong economy and low interest rate environment are supportive of home  demand. The country's population has risen at a CAGR of 4% over the past four years to 5 million, driven by the government's proimmigration policy. Despite the robust population growth, the unemployment rate remained a low 2.2% in Q2 2010 (source: Ministry of Manpower). Credit Suisse Private Banking forecasts GDP  growth to reach 15.5% in FY 2010 and 8% in FY 2011, slightly above the guidance given by the government. In addition to its strategic geographical location and an open economy that has seen a return in demand for office space, efforts to inject momentum into the country with the  two new integrated resorts are also paying dividends for the hospitality and retail real estate sectors. Annual home sales pick up on real demand Home sales picked up strongly in July as developers resumed launches, after sentiment was weighed down by the European sovereign debt crisis in Q2 2010. This brings the new private home take-up rate for January–July 2010 to 10,124, sustaining the momentum recorded in 2006, 2007 and 2009 of above 10,000 units per annum. We believe the strong takeup rate can be attributed to the robust population growth, and the low completion rate of private homes over the next two years. The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) expects 10,744 new homes to be completed in 2010, but only 6,451 in 2011. This is below the historical average annual  completion of 8,000 units.,The lack of supply for Housing Development Board (HDB) public flats has also placed upward pressure on demand for private mass market housing, although the government has started to address this issue by launching more built-to-order (BTO) flats. We believe supportive government policies and economic factors will continue to drive real demand for housing. Despite the larger population, the low headline unemployment rate of 2.2% has prompted the government to expect 100,000 new immigrants in 2010 alone. The potential influx of migrants could put more pressure on home vacancy rates (Figure 1), which are still at historically low levels. The tightness in home supply is starting to feed through to rents, which rose 5.9% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q2, from 4.7% QoQ in Q1, according the URA rental index (Figure 2). The increase in rents is also supportive of investment demand for new property, with current gross rental yields of between 3% and 4% and the low interest rate environment underpinning the positive carry from real estate investment. Homes still an affordable and attractive investment The current SIBOR of 0.55% is close to record low levels. Historically, Singapore does not have an interest rate policy but instead tracks the US Fed's interest rate movements. Our macro team does not expect the latter to hike rates in the next 12 months, which suggests that mortgage rates in  Singapore will remain low during the period. Based on data from the URA, banks and the Department of Statistics of Singapore, Credit Suisse estimates that the current monthl y  mortgage payment at rates of between 1.25% and 1.55% for a SGD 1.2 m condominium is at 33% of the 30th percentile monthly income of SGD 9,550, taking into account the fact that over 80% of the population live in HDB flats. This is within the bank lending threshold of 50%. Our macro team's forecast for the SGD to appreciate by 1.5% against the USD in 12 months is also favorable for asset appreciation in the country. We do not see further cooling measures in the near term Draconian policy measures to cool demand for new homes in the near term are unlikely, in our view, as.home price growth has started to moderate after the previous round of measures, which have included the introduction of a seller's stamp duty and a lower loan-to-value (LTV) limit of 80%. While the property price index has exceeded the 1997 highs, the rise in the quarterly price index of 5.2% QoQ in Q2 2010 was a slow down from the 5.6%QoQ rise in the previous quarter. According to the property developers we spoke to, the government is focusing on meeting strong demand by increasing land and public housing supply. The  government is ramping up land sales by placing 18 sites on the confirmed list that could result in a record 8,135 residential units, the highest supply of private housing from the Confirmed List since 2001.This has effectively allowed developers to be more selective and less aggressive about bidding for land bank. Given that the majority of the population still lives in public housing, the Housing Development Board has also launched 9,844 units in the first seven months of the year. The HDB has said that it is planning to offer up to 16,000 BTO flats this year, compared to the historical take-up rate of 7,000 units per annum in the past decade. The release of more  HDB housing supply will likely dampen the upside potential for the private mass market housing segment going forward. Commercial office demand buoyed by the return of business confidence Demand for international grade A office space continues to be stable, with the take-up rate of upcoming supply until 2012 now reaching 50%, according to CB Richard Ellis. Office rents turned around in Q2 2010, whereby prime office rents were up 3% QoQ while grade A rose by  5.6% QoQ (Figure 3). The property developers we spoke to guided that rents could potentially rise by 10% this year. The pre-leasing asking rents for some new prime office spaces already reflect this.  Even if pre-leasing can be secured at SGD 11 per square foot per month (psf pm) as indicated, it is still affordable at half of the 2007 peak and offers a big discount to Hong Kong. Vacancy rates across the various segments have also declined, while the latest Marina Bay Financial Centre 1 in the core CBD, which was completed in April 2010, was fully taken up. Around 6.9 million square feet of office space is expected to be completed before 2015 (source: CBRE), slightly above the historical five-year take-up of 1.28 million square feet per annum. We believe that strong business activities could potentially boost the take-up rate to above-average levels, reducing oversupply concerns. Tourist arrivals continue to hit record levels on a monthly basis in H1 2010, partly due to the opening of the two integrated resorts. This is positive for the retail and hospitality  sectors, and moderates concerns about an increase in supply for both sectors. Robust demand for hotel rooms has driven the average occupancy rate up to 88%, compared to 76% at thebeginning of the year. The average room rate also increased by 23% year-on-year (YoY) in June, reaching SGD 219 per night. We expect the strong momentum to  continue in the second half of the year, due to the Youth Olympic Games and Formula One. The staggered opening of more attractions, such as museums, a marine aquarium center, theatres and more attractions at Universal Studios in the two integrated resorts, should continue to draw tourists to Singapore, underpinning demand for retail property. In the longer term, we believe the integrated resorts enhance Singapore's positioning as a global city, thus supporting asset price appreciation in the country. Property developer stocks should follow sales momentum We see potential upside for the stock prices of Singapore property developers, as they historically track sales volume. Stocks have underperformed the REITs by 7% year-to-date and have not fully priced in the positive economic drivers for home demand. City Developments (CIT SP, BUY) is the  most leveraged to Singapore with more than 80% of its NAV in the country. The company has a large land bank and will benefit from improving commercial rents and hotel rates. Keppel Land (KPLD SP, BUY) is the key beneficiary of the improving conditions in the office sector. Up to 55% of its NAV is in the commercial office space. Capitaland (CAPL SP, BUY) would benefit from improving conditions in Singapore too, albeit to a lesser extent due to its more regional exposure. Should market concerns over China's property policy risks abate, the stock could re-rate. S-REITs provide exposure to domestic consumption and tourism revival themes As at the end of 2009, the Singapore REIT sector (S-REIT) was the sixth largest globally in terms of market capitalization. While listed property developers in Singapore mainly focus on residential and commercial properties, S-REITs offer exposure to the industrial, retail,  hospitality and even the healthcare segments of the property market. We believe REITs with retail and hotel assets provide exposure to the themes of domestic consumption and tourism revival in Singapore. In line with the rebound in visitor arrivals to more than 900,000 per month in Q2 and improving consumer confidence as the domestic economy recovers, retail and hospitality  REITs have shown a marked outperformance over other REIT micro sectors yearto- date (Figure 4). Prudent management of financial position The balance sheet risk for REITs has eased on the back of an average gearing of 32%, which is comfortably below the 60% regulatory gearing limit, the less than SGD 4 billion in debt due for refinancing in 2011 and the receding risk of asset devaluation as asset values stabilize and recover. This is also reflected in the recent upgrade in the credit outlook for the sector by Moody's from negative to stable. Nonetheless, REIT managers remain focused on actively managing debt maturity profiles, with many taking advantage of the  decline in interest rates to refinance with longer-dated debt of as much as five to seven years. Acquisitions pick up momentum With the proceeds from their recapitalization, the recovery in unit prices and the improvement in credit conditions, REITs are embarking on yield-accretive deals again, with almost SGD 4 bn worth of acquisitions announced over the last ten months. As we expected, REITs with sponsors that have a large  ipeline of stable or mature assets have been the most active. For instance, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT has announced its intention to acquire warehouse and logistics facilities from its major unitholder for SGD 161 m, to be partly funded by a rights issue. Mapletree Logistics Trust's acquisition of warehouse assets in South Korea for SGD 32 m is its seventh purchase since December 2009, bringing total acquisitions this year to SGD 460 m. One hospitality REIT has also announced a major acquisition of Asian and European assets from its sponsor, which could double its assets, to be partially funded by the issuance of new units. We see  S-REITs as well-positioned to capitalize on inorganic growth opportunities. However, we do not recommend paying a premium for acquisition potential, given the lack of distressed assets in the market, which would limit yield accretion potential. Attractive on a total return basis Given that S-REITs are trading close to or above their net asset values, with an average price-to-book of 0.97x (source: Bloomberg), we expect modest to moderate capital appreciation potential. However, we continue to see investment merits for S-REITs from a total return perspective. The average market capitalization-weighted FY 2010E and FY 2011E yield from the sector of 6.2% and 6.4% respectively translates into a yield pick-up of 4.2 to 4.4% over the  10-year Singapore government bond. With interest rates expected to stay low over the next six to nine months, S-REITs have the potential to remain market outperformers with their stable income stream and high yields. We prefer mid-sized REITs with strong distributable income per unit (DPU) growth drivers and attractive total return potential. Large industrial space supply limits rental upside potential Supported by a recovery in demand, rents and capital values for industrial properties recovered in Q2 2010, after falling from a peak in Q3 2008. Business and science parks were the exception. According to DTZ Research, monthly rent for hi-tech industrial properties remained flat in Q2 at SGD 3.15 psf, due to the narrow rental gap with offices in non-CBD areas. Rental savings were not enticing enough for tenants in decentralized offices to move, capping demand for hi-tech space. We expect industrial rents to recover at a modest pace, in view of the large supply of about 15 million square feet (sf) of private industrial space over the next one and a half years, including Biopolis Phase 3 in 2010 and Midview City in 2011, compared to peak industrial space demand of 14 million sf in 2007 and a 15-year average supply of 9.1 million sf per annum. Rebound in consumer spending underpins firm retail rentals Gross prime Orchard Road rents remained unchanged at SGD 39.70 psf per month in Q2 2010, while prime first-storey rents in other city areas fell slightly by 0.4% to SGD 24.30 psf (source: DTZ), as the market digested the new retail space at Esplanade Xchange and The Shoppes at Marina Bay Sands. Suburban malls outperformed with slight rental increases of 0.30%–0.4%. Given the rebound in tourist arrivals and stronger discretionary spending as the domestic economy recovers, we expect occupancy rates and spot rents in welllocated developments to be well-supported, although the new supply in suburban retail space until 2013 will moderate upside potential.